Winter Storm Watch South Central Pa North Central Maryland Including Harrisburg York Philadelphia Ba
This has certainly been a tough year for snow lovers in South Central Pennsylvania and North Central Maryland. Snow has been all around you on a number of occasions yet this area seems to be in some sort of a snow hole. Now we have the 4th winter storm to impact the Middle Atlantic & Northeast. This may be the best and last chance for a significant snowfall of some sort.
My forecast is considerably under what many weather models are suggesting and there are a number of reasons for this. Time of year is now working against a heavy snowfall. Frankly predicting a heavy snowfall is always difficult and even through model do suggest higher amounts, they do not show the practical reasons why amounts should be less. Among other things is the sun angle since we will see snowfall during the daytime on Tuesday and on Wednesday. Also there is a question of how much falls as sleet and rain. Cold air for this area is borderline at best. Elevation plays a key role as well. Given all of this I don't feel comfortable going for higher amounts other than what is indicated. Could some areas see higher amounts. Absolutely! Am I able to tell you exact amounts for all locations? No! That is impossible. There will be busts here in both directions so use this as a guide only.
The map above shows the NAM model Wednesday morning with the intensifying low off the Delaware coast. Notice the area of sleet into Southeastern Pennsylvania. If sleet gets involved here this will hold down snow amounts. Eventually it changes to all snow which lasts into the early Wednesday evening before it all winds down rapidly.