Looking Ahead to 2 Snow Ice Rain Threats
Snow Thursday Night Friday Morning Minor Event
Weather system number one is heading here for Thursday night into Friday morning. This is a weak system and we aren't expecting much from this. A coating to a couple of inches is the limit and there isn't much room for an upside surprise here. Liquid snow amounts are on the order of a quarter of an inch or less and in some places much less. Look for a rather patchy looking radar presentation from this system It is basically a little warm advection with a weak low that passes close by or reforms off the New Jersey coast before moving out Friday. Snow will arrive Thursday evening in Southern Pennsylvania, reaching NYC around or just after midnight and it will be done between 7 and 10 am from west to east. This was the snow first call map from this morning. Im not making any changes to it all. My numbers are actually a little lower than the National Weather Service numbers that were put out this morning. This system right now does look a bit under whelming. Moisture is limited, nothing inspiring regarding the upper air support. It is one those basic minimal systems that will just mozy on through and then it is on to the next one which is the system for the weekend.
The upper trough with this is phasing together after days where models argued against it. This means an inland track which shift heavy snows and ice north and west of the coast. It will likely be cold enough for snow at the start in most areas and then a change to rain along the coast rather quickly but a longer snow/ice period inland with some accumulation before the change over. Once the low goes by to the north the front whips through and we could see a change back to ice and snow Sunday morning into the afternoon. Figuring out amounts and the cutoff line for accumulations is still tough but we can say that temperatures on Sunday will fall from the 40s early in the day into the teens Sunday evening and down to the single digits in many areas by Monday morning on strong northerly winds.
Next week will start bitterly cold with sunshine and clouds with strong winds Monday and temperatures just into the 20s. Tuesday will be another day with sunshine and clouds and highs just in the 20s.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECAST MAPS ARE UPDATED FOR ALL AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND AND CAN BE FOUND AT METEOROLOGISTJOECIOFFI.COM